The total food and drink market across eating in and out is forecast to finish this year at +6.6% compared to last year, with further growth for 2023 of +5%, according to new forecasts from IGD.
However, IGD’s Eating In Vs. Eating Out report reveals that when inflationary price increases are stripped out, the picture is very different, citing a -2% decline this year compared to 2021.
Other highlights from the report include:
- This year eating in will account for 71% of the market with eating out at 29%;
- This is a recovery for eating out from the 21% share in 2020, but still some way below its pre-pandemic share of 37%;
- Retail channels will start to steal share of the market from foodservice in 2023;
- However, retail wins from foodservice will be mostly offset by down-trading by shoppers – cheaper products, buying less, and switching to own label;
- Growth will be driven by inflation. Real market value is set to decline in 2022 compared to 2021.
Nicola Knight, Insight Manager and Eating Out sector expert at IGD, said: “Retailers are implementing a variety of initiatives to win and retain shoppers. These are mainly focused on promoting value and loyalty schemes. This looks set to continue into 2023 as shoppers remain very price sensitive.”
The UK’s eating out market has had a buoyant first half of the year, with 2022 being the first year since the pandemic that operators across all sectors were fully open.
Knight added: “How the year finishes will depend on how consumers celebrate over the festive season. Next year the market is likely to see more spend switch to retail and recovery stall in many sectors.”
