It’s the question on everyone’s lips,” said SGF Chief Executive John Drummond to a healthy throng of retailers and suppliers as he introduced the panel at an SGF independence debate. So yes or no? Those on the platform were well selected – Blair Jenkins, Chief Executive of the Yes campaign, Tory MSP Jackson Carlaw, representing the Better Together campaign, and Eddie Barnes, political editor at The Scotsman – who was both politically and physically sat in the middle. BBC political correspondent Raymond Buchanan chaired.
Jenkins was first to the floor and spoke passionately about his “strong belief that a real energy will be released in Scotland” if the country votes to go independent. “This is not something I can prove, but it’s something I believe.” He spoke about the three pillars of democracy, economy and society – discussing how Scotland was “blessed with natural capital” and that seeking a society with less disparity would lead to further economic growth. He said Scotland should follow a Scandinavian rather than a US model of society. “The best way to protect our future is to create it,” he added.
Jackson Carlow followed with a more, entertaining rhetoric. He compared the situation to his home life, saying his wife and he had no plans to divorce so why discuss divvying up their possessions. “The dilemma for unionists,” he said, “is that we’ve been accosted and asked to provide a rationale for why we should stay together when for many it’s a matter of the heart.”
He called the UK the “most successful political union in the history” and questioned why we should want to end that.
All very polite so far. Eddie Barnes spoke from a neutral perspective, highlighting the importance of the November publication of the Scottish Government’s White Paper, saying that until that time the UK would continue to set the agenda. He said this Paper was vital to the Yes campaign. “Political science says that if people are undecided they will stick with what they know.”
And that’s the crux of the current debate. We don’t know much of Scotland’s future beyond next year. Indeed when the debate was turned to the floor for questions, CJ Lang’s David Lamb was quick to ask about Scotland’s future currency. Jenkins spoke of a ‘Sterling Zone’, whilst Carlaw asked why competitors would do each other favours. “We would lose MPs and the Scottish Office in return for a the possibility of one person sitting on the Bank of England Monetary Policy Board,” he said, not quite incredulous, but getting there. Barnes indicated there could be issues over tax policy. “What leverage would Scotland have as a country with a 9/1 population ratio?” he asked.
Again, a question that cannot be answered at this stage of the debate. This theme continued following SGF President Robert Sider’s question on how an independent Scotland would cover the cost of state and public sector pensions. While Carlaw and Jenkins jockeyed for position, Barnes called the current and future pension funding situation “terrifying” independence or not.
These are big picture questions, and ones that will affect everyone, but the debate gave retailers the chance to turn the discussion to matters more directly relevant. Step forward Dennis Williams from Broadway Convenience Store, who asked what an independent Scotland would do with business rates. Jenkins rightly said that it was not a Yes argument as the Scottish Government imposes this tax as it is.
The panel admitted that a question about National Minimum Wage or a Scottish Living Wage was something that hasn’t been on the agenda yet, which in itself raises an interesting point, which was cemented by John Drummond’s question on the future of Government agencies: the scope of change is enormous. Who will issue your passport? Will Scottish drivers still defer to the DVLA? Will Scotland’s minimum wage differ from the rest of the UK. As Carlaw put it: “All manner of issues bubble along, no one giving them a second thought. Over the next year questions will need to be asked of all of them.”
September 18th 2014 is still some time away. The main message from this educating and entertaining debate was that while the clock ticks on, momentum will need to pick up – the questions that don’t have answers will start to test the patience of those who won’t be voting for ideological or political reasons – many of whom will be convenience retailers potentially looking to do what is best for their business and their family.
