The UK food-to-go market is predicted to be worth £23.4bn by 2027, 26% more than pre-pandemic levels, according to a new forecast from insight provider IGD.
IGD predicts the UK food-to-go channel will be worth £18.9bn this year, 3% more than its pre-Covid value in 2019. The market has performed better than predicted since the pandemic, but this will slow by the end of the year and throughout 2023 as consumers battle rising energy, fuel and food costs, says IGD.
Nicola Knight, Senior Analyst for Food-to-Go and author of the forecast, said: “Inflation is already affecting many consumers but until now food-to-go has continued to perform strongly. This will change as the true impact of rising prices really kicks in in the last quarter and takes hold next year. So, while inflation will boost the overall value of the market, volume will, at best, stay the same in 2023.
“The next 18 months will be a challenging period for the sector, mainly for coffee and food-to-go specialists, as operators attempt to balance rising costs with helping consumers to save money.”
IGD predicts that price point, range and execution of meal deals will become fiercely competitive, as providers aim to capitalise on the opportunity.
Knight added: “During the pandemic, retailers deprioritised food-to-go space in favour of in-demand categories, leaving them on the competitive back foot as footfall returned and consumers sought a change from homemade meals. However, if they can get their price, offer and format right, by 2027 retail could more than regain the share lost to foodservice operators during the pandemic to claim 23.7% of the food-to-go market, compared with 22.9% in 2019 and 20% in 2020/21.
“Key opportunities for retailers over the next 18 months will include strengthening their meal deal offers as consumers become more value-led, and utilising customer data to create tailored offers that are relevant and savings-focused. There’s also an opportunity for them to increase food-to-go ranges to meet consumer needs across a wider variety of meal occasions.”
